Ensemble predictions combining our ELO model (50%) with Vegas betting lines (50%).
Model includes: base ELO ratings, 3-game momentum adjustments, home field advantage (+52 points),
rest differentials (±40 pts), live weather forecasts (asymmetric outdoor advantage), and injury reports.
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Current Team Rankings
ELO ratings update after each game using margin-of-victory multipliers.
Larger margins and upsets produce bigger rating changes. Average team: ~1500.
Rank
Team
Conference
Division
ELO Rating
Proj. Wins
Playoff %
Division Standings
Current standings by division. Division leaders earn playoff berths, with the top team in each conference receiving a first-round bye.
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining 2025 games (Weeks 15-18).
Each simulation uses current ELO ratings to determine win probabilities,
then projects final standings and playoff seeding.
Team
Record
Make Playoffs
First-Round Bye
Proj. Wins
Model Calibration
A well-calibrated model's predicted probabilities match observed frequencies.
Games predicted at 70% should win 70% of the time. This model uses isotonic regression
to map raw ELO probabilities to calibrated probabilities. Excellent calibration:
error < 5 percentage points per bin.
Probability Bins vs. Actual Win Rate
Predicted Range
Games
Avg Predicted
Actual Win Rate
Error
Quality
Historical Performance
Weekly prediction accuracy throughout the 2025 season. Values above 50% beat random chance.