Ensemble predictions combining our ELO model (50%) with Vegas betting lines (50%).
Model includes: base ELO ratings, 3-game momentum adjustments, home field advantage (+52 points),
rest differentials (±40 pts), live weather forecasts (asymmetric outdoor advantage), and injury reports.
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Current Team Rankings
ELO ratings update after each game using margin-of-victory multipliers.
Larger margins and upsets produce bigger rating changes. Average team: ~1500.
Rank
Team
Conference
Division
ELO Rating
Proj. Wins
Playoff %
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining 2025 games (Weeks 10-18).
Each simulation uses current ELO ratings to determine win probabilities,
then projects final standings and playoff seeding.
Team
Make Playoffs
First-Round Bye
Proj. Wins
Model Calibration
A well-calibrated model's predicted probabilities match observed frequencies.
Games predicted at 70% should win 70% of the time. This model uses isotonic regression
to map raw ELO probabilities to calibrated probabilities. Excellent calibration:
error < 5 percentage points per bin.